In 30 seconds
- Velocity = total story points (or items) finished in a sprint.
- Use a rolling average of the last 3 sprints to forecast.
- It's a planning aid for one team, never a performance score.
Try it
How to calculate it
Add up the story points of every item that met the Definition of Done in the sprint. Partly done items count as zero. Track it over several sprints; a rolling average of the last three smooths out noise.
Using it to forecast
If a team averages 30 points a sprint and the next release has 150 points of work, it's roughly 5 sprints away. Give a range, not a date: for example, 4 to 6 sprints using the team's lowest and highest recent velocities.
How it gets misused
- Comparing teams: each team's point scale differs.
- Setting targets: teams will hit the target by inflating estimates.
- Ignoring quality: velocity can rise while technical debt piles up.
Velocity vs throughput
Throughput counts finished items per week instead of points. Kanban teams prefer it, and if items are similar in size it forecasts just as well. See Velocity vs Throughput.
Myth vs reality
The AI angle
Velocity can jump after AI adoption without more value reaching users. Treat a sudden rise as a signal to re-baseline, not as proof of improvement.
FAQ
How many sprints before velocity is useful?
About three, enough for a reasonable average.
What if team members change?
Expect velocity to shift; re-baseline over the next few sprints.
Should management see velocity?
Forecasts, yes. Raw velocity as a performance metric, no.